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dc.contributor.authorVillarino, Ernesto-
dc.contributor.authorChust, Guillem-
dc.contributor.authorLicandro, Priscilla-
dc.contributor.authorIbaibarriaga, Leire-
dc.contributor.authorLarranaga, Aitor-
dc.contributor.authorButenschoen, Momme-
dc.contributor.authorIrigoien, Xabier-
dc.identifier.citationMARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES, 2015, 531, 121-142-
dc.description.abstractAdvances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080-2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatic-biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001-2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (-15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12-13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43-79\% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970-1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987-2004).-
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was funded by the European Commission (Contract No. 264933, EURO-BASIN: European Union Basin-Scale Analysis, Synthesis and Integration) and the Basque Government (Department Deputy of Agriculture, Fishing and Food Policy). We acknowledge CliSAP-Integrated Climate Data Center and NOAA for providing climate and bathymetry data, respectively. E. V. has benefited from a PhD Scholarship granted by the Inaki Goenaga-Technology Centres Foundation. We are grateful to present and past staff of SAHFOS who have contributed to the maintenance of the CPR time series. The authors also acknowledge Markus Kreus, who has actively contributed providing data from HAMOCC and MPIOM models through DKRZ ( This is contribution 710 from AZTI-Tecnalia Marine Research Division.-
dc.subjectHabitat suitability-
dc.subjectClimate change-
dc.subjectNorth Atlantic-
dc.titleModelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change-
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Commission (EURO-BASIN: European Union Basin-Scale Analysis, Synthesis and Integration) \[264933]-
dc.contributor.funderBasque Government (Department Deputy of Agriculture, Fishing and Food Policy)-
dc.contributor.funderInaki Goenaga-Technology Centres Foundation-
Appears in Publication types:Artículos científicos

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